Demo school · synthetic data
Running the forecast…
Running the forecast…
KHOU · Houston/William P Hobby, TX · America/Chicago
Instead of a guessed weather cancellation rate, FlightPath sets it hour by hour from the TAF, the National Weather Service forecast, and 3 years of this airport's own observations, then applies each student's minimums and each aircraft's limits. Change the home airport at the top of the page to see any US field.
Minimums: ceiling 400 ft, visibility 1 sm, wind 25 kt, gusts 30 kt, crosswind 15 kt, IMC allowed. Hover a cell for the reason.
| 7AM | 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | 12PM | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct 17 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
Lowest cancellation odds for instrument lessons
Highest cancellation odds, with the driver
No hour this week is above 30% for this phase.
Share of hours below instrument minimums, from 3 years of hourly METARs at KHOU, Oct 16, 2026 through the next four weeks.
Demo school SOP. Each school loads its own once; aircraft limits (crosswind, temperature, IFR equipment) come from the fleet profile.
| Phase | Ceiling | Visibility | Wind / gust | Crosswind | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private dual | 1,500 ft | 3 sm | 20 / 25 kt | 12 kt | Dual VFR lessons, pre-solo and private |
| Private solo | 3,000 ft | 5 sm | 15 / 20 kt | 8 kt | Student solo and solo cross-country |
| Instrument | 400 ft | 1 sm | 25 / 30 kt | 15 kt | Dual IFR; no thunderstorms or icing (no FIKI trainers) |
| Commercial | 2,000 ft | 5 sm | 25 / 30 kt | 15 kt | Commercial maneuvers and cross-country |
TAF KHOU 162330Z 1700/1724 36017G29KT P6SM SCT250 FM171000 01013G23KT P6SM SCT250 FM171800 01013KT P6SM SCT250
Runways used for crosswind: 04/22, 13L/31R, 13R/31L. Sources: aviationweather.gov (TAF, METAR, airport data), api.weather.gov (NWS gridded forecast), Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive (climatology). Ceilings beyond the TAF are estimated from NWS sky cover and the temperature/dewpoint spread.
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Sun, Oct 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
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| Tue, Oct 20 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
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| Wed, Oct 21 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
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| Thu, Oct 22 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
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| Fri, Oct 23 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Percent chance a lesson starting that hour cancels for weather. First day from the TAF, then the NWS forecast, blending toward airport history as lead time grows.
Historically the 7 PM slot is the most reliable (1%) and 1 PM the least (7%). This is the pattern the booking calculator uses to steer students toward the hours that actually fly, and the baseline beyond the 7-day forecast.