Maintenance outlook

Every scheduler can show hours until the next 100-hour. They assume every booking flies, so the date is early and the fleet-wide picture is missing. FlightPath runs the schedule forward 300 times with each booking's real odds of flying (weather for that student and aircraft, no-shows, maintenance), moves flying from a downed aircraft onto its sister ships, and shows when several aircraft are likely to be in the shop at once, in time to stagger them.

Pile-ups ahead

No window with 2+ aircraft likely down

Most aircraft down at once

1.2

Expected, of 5. Naive projection says 2.

Inspections land later by

6.8 days

Average shift vs. a reservations-only projection

Flying at risk in pile-ups

About 0 hours sister ships cannot absorb

Aircraft in the shop, day by day

Bars: expected aircraft down (FlightPath). Ticks: what a reservations-only projection shows. Red band: chance of 2+ aircraft down together.

Which aircraft carry the schedule

Share of booked hours, next 3 weeks. Students book favorites first, so those time out first, and together.

DEMO-124.3 hrs/wk · 24% · cumulative 24%
DEMO-524.2 hrs/wk · 23% · cumulative 47%
DEMO-223.3 hrs/wk · 23% · cumulative 70%
DEMO-419.1 hrs/wk · 19% · cumulative 88%
DEMO-312.1 hrs/wk · 12% · cumulative 100%

DEMO-1 and DEMO-5 carry 47% of the flying. When a favorite goes down, its students move to the sister ships, which pulls their inspections forward too. That chain reaction is how a school ends up with several aircraft down in the same week.

When each aircraft really times out

Next hours-based inspection: reservations-only projection vs. FlightPath's likely date and range (10th to 90th percentile).

Aircraft	Item	Reservations only	FlightPath likely	Range	Calendar items in window
DEMO-1	100-hour inspection	Oct 19	Oct 24(+5d)	Oct 22 to Oct 26	None

Maintenance outlook

Aircraft in the shop, day by day

Which aircraft carry the schedule

When each aircraft really times out

Cheapest shop days this week